Thursday, January 28, 2010

Good Analysis from 'A Yankee Whistles'

Check it out here.

Basically, he makes the case that impending salary cap de-elevation due to revenue losses and a potentially weakening Canadian dollar will make all teams wary of paying the Czar the full $11.36 some think he's demanding. He also points out that DW has twice let Kozlov test the free agency waters and re-signed him successfully.

It's good analysis and leads to feel even more strongly that Kovy will be playing for Atlanta on March 4 and may well re-up with Atlanta to play in October.

It is worth noting that everything we've seen from other clubs is that the asking price to get Kovy in a trade is too much. The Bruins, Flames, Penguins, and Canucks have all made statements that it would take too much to get him as a rental player. The latest rumors say that the Kings have made an offer and DW made a counteroffer. Since there has been no trade yet, that means that DW is currently asking for more than the Kings are willing to part with.

I don't think anybody is going to be willing to give DW enough to justify giving up Kovy's services in this playoff run and his exclusive negotiating rights until July.

Here is my response to the Yankee Whistler:

"Good analysis and a great point about how currency values affect the salary cap. No other league has to factor that in.

My prediction is that the asking price for a trade will be too much for other teams and Kovalchuk will stay with Atlanta through the playoffs this year. Then he'll test the free agency waters.

There will be very few teams willing and/or able to meet his initial salary demands, and when he settles on a slightly lower number, he'll weigh staying in Atlanta against going to another NHL city for the same money, or going to the KHL for a lot more money.

I think the factors you've cited above will eventually keep him in Atlanta, but don't expect him to sign a contract until late Summer. Kovy's deadline isn't March 3 and it isn't July 1. His deadline is the first game of the 2010/11 season."


Big Shooter said...

As I stated the first time you brought this up: I think you are an idiot.

Kovy may wait until July 1st, but there is no fu#$%%g way he waits until the first game of the year. All the money teams allocate to big stars will be spent elsewhere.

On a different note, the trip up to Nashville promises to be a dandy!

GoPuckYourself said...

I have to say...the sheer quantity and quality of TBC's journalistic endeavors today is astounding.

And I agree, Kovalchuk is not sitting out training camp and all that like Michael Crabtree did. Although MC Hammer got Crabtree's deal maybe it's worth a phone call to the Hammer to see if he can help us out with The Czar.

Razor Catch Prey said...

Kovy's deadline is the first day of the 10/11 season. That doesn't mean he is going to wait that long. You're right Shooter (despite your rudeness) that if he were to wait that long, no team would have the money left to sign him.

My point is that he is in no rush to sign before July 1. His only concern is getting the most money possible. If that means signing for 20% of the cap tomorrow, fine. If it means holding out during a bidding war that lasts until Fall, fine. As long as there are at least two teams out there with $11 million of cap space who are in open discussions with Grossman, Kovy's camp has no pressure.

Big Shooter said...

I'm always right (despite my rudeness).

My, look at that Moose save that just happened. My.

Jay said...

Holding out for every last penny isn't always the prudent thing to do. Ask Johnny Damon how that's working out for him. The teams that have the money have it because they are smart enough not to put it all in one player. The teams that are Cup contenders have no cap space because they have a bunch of $4M-$6M players and go three quality lines deep. Unless the Rangers are willing to bury millions in the minors, Burke goes against what he just said about not paying one player that much, or the Kings go against their typical spending plan, I just don't see it happening for Kovalchuk. It seems to me it will come down to Atlanta or the KHL for Kovy.

Mutton Sourdough said...

I tend to agree with Jay here. I just don't see any of the supposed forerunners breaking away from their gameplans. However, I also agree with RCP and think that as long as there seems to be a market for him he can afford to be patient. Or greedy.

j_barty_party said...

To hell with Kovy's deadline! The only deadline is that of DWad...if he even has one that is. Don MUST draw the line in the sand and make it quite clear offers will be entertained. It is very early in the feeling out process. Just because no deal has been made doesn't mean a deal can't be made.

Just wait...Boston, Calgary and Philly may all become very, very desperate by March 4. And Chicago will be $10 M, yes $10 M, at the very least over the Cap next season. They may not have very many options next year as they have $60.5 M tied up in 15 players. Holy shit balls!

Obviously they could never afford to take on Kovy full-time, but perhaps they can be enticed with the rental scenario if we are willing to a) take on Soupy's exorbitant contract in exchange for Hainsey (savings of $2.65) b) CHI is willing to part with Sharp (savings of $3.9 M) c) they give us our pick of RFA (Buffy, Versteeg or Barker) for additional $3.1 M in savings and d) DWad is willing to part with his # 1 pick and several prospects not named Postma, Kulda or Klingberg. If they want Morin and O'Dell, they'll have to give us Skille. That would be savings of roughly $9.65 M, get them down to $50.85 M before making a few other moves to resign their other RFA's and ice an entire 20 player roster.