Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Some Crazy Talk About Goals For

The Atlanta Thrashers scored a total of 254 goals in the 08-09 season. No where near the worst in the league, which was the almost-entirely-Joe-Sakic-less Colorado Avalanche who petered out at 199. However, it also fell short of the 295 scored by the only productive thing left in the city of Detroit.

The Czar has made it clear he feels that the team needs to add some quality free agents to improve, and we here at the Chronicle agree. The real question is WHO should be added to the roster?

Shooter and Morty have put forth the proposition that Mike Cammalleri would fit nicely, and that’s impossible to dispute. However, when I run the lines and figure on goal projections based on linemates and improvement, here’s what I find:

Kovalchuck --- Peverly ---Cammalleri
50 goals --- 25 --- 35

Kozlov ---White --- Little
25 --- 15 --- 35

Stuart --- Reasoner --- Armstrong
8 --- 5 --- 15

Crabb --- Slater ---Boulton
4 --- 10 --- 1

Bogosian --- Enstrom
25 --- 10

Hainsey --- Exelby
10 --- 1

Salmela --- Valabik
10 --- 1

For a total of 281 goals. A huge improvement, to be sure. The natural progression of Peverly, Little, Stewart, Bogosian, Enstrom, and Salmela alone will add to this year’s GF numbers. Cammalleri’s added goals and the improved production from Kovy and Peverly with such a quality linemate should be enough to get Atlanta into the playoffs.

Next, I ran the numbers if instead of picking up Cammalleri, the Thrashers obtained an unnamed playmaking center for the top line who might be expected to set up Kovy and put in about 20 himself. Here’s how that looked:

Kovalchuck --- Center --- Little
55 goals --- 20 --- 35

Kozlov --- White --- Armstrong
20 --- 15 --- 20

Stuart --- Peverly --- Reasoner
8 --- 18 --- 8

Crabb --- Slater --- Boulton
4 --- 10 --- 1

And the Defense numbers are unchanged. As you can see, I assumed Kovy would score a few more with Little on the other wing and a playmaking center. Army likewise would score a few more paired with Kozy and White, while Kozlov would score a few less without Little. The adjusted numbers are 267- just 12 more than this season. Not good enough. Obviously the team needs more than just one player at center on the top line.

A much bigger improvement was seen when I tried adding a legitimate scoring threat to the right wing on the second line. I’d like to see Armstrong grow into that role, but I think he’s destined to be a third line contributor. So here’s how I saw it if we were to add both the true number 1 center and a solid right winger with a nose for the net on the second line:

Kovalchuck --- Center --- Little
55 goals --- 20 --- 35

Kozlov --- White --- Right Winger
25 --- 15 --- 30

Reasoner --- Peverly --- Armstrong
12 --- 20 --- 15

Stuart --- Slater --- Boulton
6 --- 10 --- 1

With the same numbers yet again on D, this comes to a whopping total of 301 goals for. That’s six more than the Detroit Red Wings scored this year to lead the league. Obviously no one could hope for more, right?

Finally, let us consider the thought that Little may be ready to move back into his natural position of center to take the helm on the top line. That would leave room for Cammalleri on the opposite wing from the Czar in addition to another legit goal scorer on the second line wing. That could look something like this:

Kovalchuck --- Little --- Right Winger
55 goals --- 30 --- 30

Kozlov --- White --- Right Winger
25 --- 15 --- 30

Reasoner --- Peverly --- Armstrong
12 --- 20 --- 15

Stuart --- Slater --- Boulton
6 --- 10 --- 1

That would add another 5 goals for a grand total of 306 goals for. Take that, re-sign Kari, keep Moose, and account for the improved defense represented by Bogosian, Enstrom, Salmela, and Valabik gaining another year of experience, and you have a President’s Trophy run.

Feel free to laugh at my goal projections, as they are all for fun. However, after you’re done doing that, I invite you to close your eyes and imagine how exciting hockey could be in Philips Arena if Don Waddell could just sign Mike Cammalleri and Maxim Afinogenov for the right side of our first two lines.

For the Chronicle, and verbose as always, I am Razor Catch Prey.

15 comments:

Mortimer Peacock said...

I don't think those are unreasonable projections at all.

Cammalleri would be amazing, obviously, and if Afinogenov could somehow guarantee a resurrection...

FrenchCatalogues said...

I don't think Pevs can get to the third at all. He drops in production. He is simply not meant for it, and I don't think he would put up the numbers like he can do.

FrenchCatalogues said...
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FrenchCatalogues said...

Brian Gionta is a UFA this year too. Apparently the Party mentored him!? Also Nik Antropov is available.

Also I'm a bit of a Martin Havalat fan, but I know he wouldn't come here. He would fit our style though.

FrenchCatalogues said...
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FrenchCatalogues said...
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FrenchCatalogues said...

I just want Mike Cammalleri. Our team would be sexy good. All those deleted comments are mine. My comments = FAIL
My typing = FAIL.

Mortimer Peacock said...

I assumed that someone had come in here raging about Teabagging, then thought better of it and deleted their comments.

Jay said...

MARIAN GABORIK+KOVALCHUK+PEVERLEY= AWESOMENESS. Also wouldn't mind Afinogenov. Would probably be able to sign him fairly cheap.

Gaborik-Peverley-Kovalchuk
Kozlov-White-Little
Afinogenov-Reasoner-Armstrong
Crabb-Slater-Stuart

Boulton and Thorburn, as much as I love the grit and hustle are expendable. With Gaborik and Afinogenov, this is a FAST team. Probably also have the fastest fourth line in the NHL.

Some other names to consider for acquisition:
Daniel Briere-Philly might need to get rid of that contract for some breathing room.
Dustin Penner-a doghouse regular in Edmonton with a bloated contract.
Brad Richards-Dallas might need to free up some cap room.
Jason Spezza-Looks less likely now with Ottawa's good finish.
Jiri Hudler-Detroit might not have enough money left to sign this restricted Free Agent.

Side note in regards to Detroit: Am I the only one who is thinking that in about seven or eight years, that is going to be the absolute oldest team in hockey history, with a 37 year old Zetterberg, 38 year old Datsyuk, 37 year old Franzen, 38 year old Hossa, and 53 year old Chelios. With all but Chelios still having about four years left on each of those contracts. Wow.

FrenchCatalogues said...

Gaborik is a great player, but I just worry about those injuries. Also I bet that LA is going right after him. I just don't want any part in Briere's contract. It's ridiculous.

Wayne from AL said...

Hold on guys: while it's nice to think of offensive numbers, our number one problem over the years has been stopping the other team from scoring on us! While no one loves up-and-down, 80's style (Nordiques and Oilers) pond-hockey more than me, how are we gonna stop the other team from scoring???

FrenchCatalogues said...

This is true, but in the second half of the season our GA was getting better and we were out shooting teams. If Army goes to the third line this will help more. It'd be a solid checking line. Then maybe Spencer Machacek could come in on the fourth if we don't resign Thorburn, and Machacek is a solid two-way player.

Jay said...

Crazy thought that just came to me in a vision. Thrashers trade 1st round(4th overall) pick, 2nd round pick(from MTL), Pavelec, and Grant Lewis to Tampa Bay for Vincent Lecalavier. This would give the Thrashers a pretty young ELITE player to center for Kovy, and would help TB with having two of the first four picks, a good young goalie, and a defenseman who could probably be in their top six. Win-Win for everybody! Pretty sure something like that would keep Kovy in Atlanta for awhile.

FrenchCatalogues said...

No, I don't want Vinny near us. I just have standards that I can't get away from. I really don't think we need another center. Kovy is going to do his thing. He's got two competent centers to choose from as well as Bryan Little. We need a really great right winger hence someone like Cammallari and Gaborik (even though we most likely wouldn't get him). Also I doubt we would trade something like that within the division, it's just too close, and little incestuous.

Mortimer Peacock said...

Just to--as the kids say--throw it out there: one advantage of signing Gaborik would be his insane speed. He could keep up with Kovalchuk like nobody's bidness.