Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Repetition

I can't remember exactly, as I was watching last night's game in a NyQuil/TheraFlu haze, but it seems like the Thrashers came back from a Ponikarovsky-inflicted two goal deficit and won the thing handsomely.

Rawhide can't help but be reminded of that game last year when the Thrashers beat the Leafs in a come-from-behind win that saw Ilya Kovalchuk score twice, Rich Peverley score once, and the Thrashers begin a rampage of wins for the rest of the season.

Will history repeat itself? If it does, a second-half tear would actually mean something this time. Unlike last season, the Thrashers built themselves a reasonably nice cushion early in the season; if they proceed to win and keep winning, well then, dagnabbit, they'll make the playoffs.

The only snag that might complicate this elegant dream is that whole Kovalchuk contract thing. All I'll say for now is that he looked exuberant and excited last night. He completely dominated the game; not just those two fine goals, but the energy and intensity he played with all night. And uh...yes. What does this mean?

All we know for certain is that Kovy must now wrest the Richard Trophy from the sinister paws of Patrick Marleau. Crosby and Ovechkin are no problem; it's that Marleau you gotta watch out for.

10 comments:

Rawhide said...

Hey buddy...hope you get to feelin' better soon.

Mr. Speaker said...

We can only hope that our last 33 games will be as good as (well, slightly better actually) our final 38 games last year in which we went 21 - 16 - 1 post-Toronto comeback win. The way I figure it, we need roughly 91 points -- 40 over the last 33 games -- from here on out to have a chance. Earn 42-44 and we're a lock with a chance at a seed as high as # 6.

To duplicate the points percentage pace of the post-Toronto stretch of a year ago, we'll need at least 37 of the available 66 pts (.566). But 37 + 51 = 88 and I don't think that will cut it this year. They will need to be closer to .610 to make the playoffs. Thusly, we will need a record of at least 18 - 11 - 4 over the final 33 games.

Basically, the Thrashers need to average 6 wins and an OTL for every 10 games they play over the last 30. But to really give them a small margin of error, it would behoove them to win the next 3. Unfortunately last year, after winning 2 more post-TOR, they decided to go and lose 7 of 9 before the West Coast swing.

Let's not repeat that shall we?

Mortimer Peacock said...

Ah, right you are, Mr. Speaker. My historical memory isn't as good as I thought.

Your central point about points and whatnot is pretty harrowing. We must win, a lot.

Mr. Speaker said...

They can do this...I think. They won 13 of 18 in March last year. While the games will mean more this time around, a healthy Lehtonen coupled with a "better" defense could mean a 12 - 4 - 1 record in March this year.

13 of the games in March are against opponents currently positioned 5th thru 15th in the East. The other 4 consist of Buffalo (at home), PHX & NSH (but at home) and a road tilt in CLB (which should be very winnable).

12 wins is not out of the question, but the fact remains, we must win at least 6 of the next 11 to have any chance. Doable. I hope.

Mutton Sourdough said...

I have nothing to add. Fine job, fellas.

I will say this though: I still believe this team can make the playoffs as is and maybe even win a series. Even though they're not surprising anyone anymore--teams know the Thrashers are an extremely dangerous offensive club.

GoPuckYourself said...

HockeyDouche (some call him Eklund, I call him HockeyDouche) claim Kovalchuk will leave us to go play for the FUCKING MAPLE LEAFS!?!?

I've been searching for a metaphor that doesn't sound just like Bill Simmons' style, but I'm struggling...

h said...

Holy Crap.....I just read that post.....what a joke. "sources"....I love "sources".....if you are going to post a rumor, at least post one that someone will actually believe that doesn't live in Toronto.....not even sure why I help give it the time of day....maybe for amusement....Ek's next post will be saying that "sources" have the LEafs trading Exelby and Toronto's 1st round picks in 2018 and 2019 (since those are the only ones they have left). If I were DW, I'd call Burke and offer Kovy up for Schenn, Ponikarovsky, Hagman and Komisarek.....but they'd have to take Todd White too.....and maybe we should get a draft pick too....jeez...what a douche

Mr. Speaker said...

Morty - you feelin' well enough to don the jersey and get your tail down to Maroon-land?

Regards,
the Speaker of Truth (except when it comes to Kovalchuk ;-)

Razor Catch Prey said...

Eklund is a freaking genius. He just took a shit on the internet and got 4 million hits from Ontario.

Mortimer Peacock said...

Mr. Speaker-

I'd love to, but I'm actually being forced to go to a terrifying birthday dinner (not for the Chronicle) tonight. French Cats will explain everything in gruesome detail.