Check it out here.
Basically, he makes the case that impending salary cap de-elevation due to revenue losses and a potentially weakening Canadian dollar will make all teams wary of paying the Czar the full $11.36 some think he's demanding. He also points out that DW has twice let Kozlov test the free agency waters and re-signed him successfully.
It's good analysis and leads to feel even more strongly that Kovy will be playing for Atlanta on March 4 and may well re-up with Atlanta to play in October.
It is worth noting that everything we've seen from other clubs is that the asking price to get Kovy in a trade is too much. The Bruins, Flames, Penguins, and Canucks have all made statements that it would take too much to get him as a rental player. The latest rumors say that the Kings have made an offer and DW made a counteroffer. Since there has been no trade yet, that means that DW is currently asking for more than the Kings are willing to part with.
I don't think anybody is going to be willing to give DW enough to justify giving up Kovy's services in this playoff run and his exclusive negotiating rights until July.
Here is my response to the Yankee Whistler:
"Good analysis and a great point about how currency values affect the salary cap. No other league has to factor that in.
My prediction is that the asking price for a trade will be too much for other teams and Kovalchuk will stay with Atlanta through the playoffs this year. Then he'll test the free agency waters.
There will be very few teams willing and/or able to meet his initial salary demands, and when he settles on a slightly lower number, he'll weigh staying in Atlanta against going to another NHL city for the same money, or going to the KHL for a lot more money.
I think the factors you've cited above will eventually keep him in Atlanta, but don't expect him to sign a contract until late Summer. Kovy's deadline isn't March 3 and it isn't July 1. His deadline is the first game of the 2010/11 season."